Correspondence on Oxygen Lead Verification
A person claimed to know someone who knew someone who had secured a source. The source had not been verified. The lead was forwarded anyway, with urgency.
Field Guide to Oxygen Lead Verification Operational Stages and Known Failure Modes
Stage 1: The Lead Arrives
Someone sends a message. The message contains a name, a phone number, and a number of cylinders said to be available. The message was forwarded from another person who received it from someone else. The chain of transmission is three to seven steps long.
The lead has not been verified.
Stage 2: The Properties of the Unverified Lead
An unverified lead travels with the velocity of a verified one and arrives at the same inbox. At the point of arrival, it is indistinguishable from a verified lead. Both contain names and numbers. Both carry urgency. Both request action.
The difference surfaces only upon contact.
Stage 3: Contact
The number is called. One of four outcomes occurs:
First: the number connects, the source is real, the cylinders are available. This is the successful outcome. It represents approximately fifteen percent of leads in a high-demand environment.
Second: the number connects, the source is real, the cylinders are no longer available. They were claimed two hours earlier by another person who received the same forwarded lead.
Third: the number connects to someone who does not know what you are talking about. They received the message also. They have been receiving calls all morning.
Fourth: the number does not connect.
Stage 4: The Absurd Rule
Several informal networks have attempted to implement verification protocols. A verified lead is marked with a timestamp, a confirming name, and a statement that availability was confirmed within the last two hours.
The protocol is not followed consistently because the person with verified information does not always know to mark it, and the person with unverified information marks it anyway to increase the likelihood that it will be forwarded.
The verification marking has become a stylistic convention rather than a factual claim.
Stage 5: Why Leads Are Forwarded Without Verification
The person who forwards an unverified lead is not negligent. They are operating in a system where the cost of forwarding is zero and the cost of not forwarding is perceived to be high. If the lead is real and they did not forward it, they are responsible for someone not having what they need.
This calculus produces a network saturated with unverified leads.
Stage 6: Observable Consequence
The people most in need of a lead spend significant time calling disconnected numbers, numbers of strangers, and numbers of people who have already been called by forty others that morning.
The effort is real. The lead is not.
Field Note
Before forwarding, call the number. This takes three minutes. It reduces noise for every recipient downstream.
Most people do not do this.