Preliminary Finding on Price Tracker Bookmark
A price tracker was set up for a flight six weeks ago. The price has moved four times. The person has not bought the ticket.
Preliminary Findings: Price Tracker Bookmark, Flight Booking Investigation Submitted August 2022 Status: Preliminary. Final findings pending purchase decision.
Background
On June 28, 2022, the subject identified a flight for a trip planned for October. The flight was priced at $341. The subject considered this price acceptable but not optimal. The subject installed a browser extension offering price tracking capabilities and bookmarked the flight.
Six weeks have elapsed.
Price Movement History
The price has moved four times since tracking was initiated.
July 8: price decreased to $312. The subject observed this as confirmation that waiting was the correct strategy.
July 17: price increased to $367. The subject observed this as a temporary fluctuation and maintained the bookmark.
July 29: price decreased to $298. The subject considered purchasing at this price. The subject did not purchase because the decrease suggested further decreases were possible.
August 6: price increased to $379. The subject is now reviewing the full history and reassessing.
Finding 1: The Tracker Has Not Simplified the Decision
The tracker was designed to remove uncertainty from the purchase decision. It has instead added four new data points to the uncertainty. Each price movement has been interpreted as evidence that a better price is still possible.
The $298 price on July 29 was the lowest recorded price in the tracking period. The subject did not know on July 29 that it was the lowest price. The subject knows this now. This information is useful for explaining the current regret and not useful for the current purchase decision.
Finding 2: The Original Price Was Acceptable
The original price of $341 was assessed as acceptable at the time of discovery. The current price of $379 exceeds the original price by $38. The subject has spent approximately ninety minutes across six weeks monitoring a price whose current value is worse than the value available at the point when monitoring began.
Finding 3: Time Is Also a Cost
The investigation has not quantified the time cost of six weeks of price monitoring. This is noted as a gap in the current findings.
The Absurd Rule
The price tracker sends a notification when the price changes. The subject has received four notifications. The subject has acted on none of them. The notifications have created a psychological obligation to continue monitoring that exceeds the actual savings available from optimal timing.
Preliminary Recommendation
Buy the ticket.
The recommendation is preliminary pending further review. The subject has not purchased the ticket.