The Old Receipt Comparison Exception
An old grocery receipt has become primary evidence in a private investigation into inflation.
Field Notes: Old Receipt Comparison Consumer Behavior Observation, Q1 2022
Observation Point One
The subject discovers an old receipt in a coat pocket. The coat was not worn regularly during the preceding period. The receipt is dated fourteen months ago.
The subject reads the receipt. Line by line.
The subject was not looking for the receipt. The subject was looking for a pen.
Observation Point Two
Eggs: previously $2.79. Bread: previously $2.19. The olive oil the subject now considers a staple but did not previously consider a staple: previously $6.49.
These prices are compared against current prices. The comparison is not done with a spreadsheet. The comparison is done internally, with brief expressions that pass across the subject's face while standing beside the coat.
Observation Point Three
The subject mentions the egg price to another person in the household. The other person notes they paid $4.10 yesterday.
This is not news. The other person already knew prices had changed. The subject knew prices had changed. The old receipt has not produced new information.
The subject mentions the eggs again, three days later, in a slightly different context.
The Exception
There is a class of purchase the subject considers unaffected by this price shift. These purchases are in categories the subject does not track. They cost more than they used to. The subject does not have receipts from 2020 for these items.
Without a receipt, there is no case.
Observation Point Four
The old receipt has been retained. It is in a separate drawer now. It is not clear why.
The investigation continues at a low operational tempo.