The Backup Plan Obsession Is Now Officially a Procedure
Three contingency plans have been prepared for a task that has not yet been attempted once.
A Field Guide to Backup Plan Obsession Stages of Development, with Observable Indicators
Stage 1: The Primary Plan
The subject identifies a task requiring execution. The task is not especially complicated. The subject begins to consider how the task might fail.
This is reasonable. Most tasks carry some risk of failure.
The subject now considers what would be done if the primary approach fails. A backup plan is sketched. It is brief. It is sensible.
The primary task has not been started.
Stage 2: The Backup Becomes the Work
The backup plan reveals a dependency. What if the backup plan's dependency also fails? A backup to the backup is required.
The original task remains unstarted. It is still there. It is patient.
At this stage the subject is working, visibly and with concentration, on a system whose entire purpose is to respond to events that have not occurred.
Stage 3: Hierarchy Formalization
The subject now maintains Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C. Plan C was added because Plan B assumed conditions that Plan C cannot assume.
The plans are not written down. They are held mentally, which means they must be periodically reviewed to ensure they remain internally consistent.
The reviews take time. The primary task waits.
Stage 4: Infrastructure Acquisition
Certain backup plans require materials, accounts, or tools not yet obtained. These are acquired. The acquisition is logged as progress.
It is progress. Just not toward the original objective.
Stage 5: The Production Line
The subject is now productive. Tasks are completed daily. The system is maintained. New contingencies are identified and addressed.
A task may be delayed if the delay can be renamed planning, setup, research, or reset.
The original task can begin at any time. Conditions are optimal. Backup coverage is excellent.
The task waits.
Observable Indicator
If the subject can describe in detail what they would do if the primary approach, the secondary approach, and the tertiary approach all fail, but cannot describe the current status of the primary approach: Stage 5 has been reached.
Document and proceed with caution.